Everything you need before peak hits

BfCM Guides

Black Friday Strategy Guide

Record Black Friday revenue can still leave you with less profit. A guide to planning peak around margin, stock and the whole trading period.

BfCM Guides

Black Friday Ads Guide

Spending more over Black Friday isn't the only way to grow. How to reallocate budget, structure Meta and Google, and plan creative for peak.

Black Friday discount calculator

A 20% discount on a 60% margin cuts the gross profit on every order by a third. Enter your numbers to see what the offer gives away, and whether the extra orders pay for it.

Your numbers

Average order value

Gross margin 60%

Orders you expect without a discount

Proposed discount 20%

Orders you expect with the promotion

Acquisition cost per order

Target contribution per order

The defaults are illustrative. Change any input and the numbers update instantly.

Gross profit given away on expected orders

£200,000

This is what the discount costs before any extra orders arrive.

Extra orders needed to break even8,000

18,000 total orders, after acquisition cost5,000 extra on gross profit alone

Required increase in orders80%

To match contribution after acquisition without the offer

Discounted order after acquisition

£25£5 above target

Your target is £20 per order. The highest discount that still meets it is 25%.

Without vs with promotion

Based on the order volumes you entered. Orders and revenue are context. Contribution after acquisition is the bottom line, and deducts the same acquisition cost from every order in both scenarios.

No promotion

Promotion

Change

Orders

10,000

16,000

+6,000

Revenue

£1,000,000

£1,280,000

+£280,000

Gross profit

£600,000

£640,000

+£40,000

Contribution after acquisition

£450,000

£400,000

-£50,000

The trade-off

A 20% discount on a 60% gross margin reduces gross profit per order from £60 to £40. You expect 16,000 orders but need 18,000 to break even after acquisition, so the offer falls 2,000 orders short.

Gross profit = selling price less cost of goods. The same cost of goods and acquisition cost per order are used in both scenarios, and the discount applies to every promotional order. Contribution here means gross profit less the acquisition cost entered. Break-even orders are the promotional orders needed to match contribution without the offer; the gross-profit-only figure ignores acquisition cost and is shown for reference. The target tests each discounted order, while the comparison tests total contribution. Fulfilment, returns, payment fees and fixed costs are excluded. Expected orders are your assumption, not a demand forecast.

BETTER BFCM DECISIONS

You don't need a bigger budget. You need last year's data.

The last thing you need is another discount war.

You need what happened last peak to shape what you do this one.

Which offers sold at margin, which audiences only bought on discount and which days burned budget for nothing.

Most of it's sitting in your own systems, untouched since January.

On its own, each is a lesson.

Together they tell you where this year's profit is.

Andy Lowdon
Strategy Director

See how we use your data

Black Friday revenue means nothing if the margin's gone.

Four free guides to keep it.